A tentative strategy
For facing humanityâs challenges
Thorbjørn Mann, July 2020
Aim
An effort to explore, understand and convey some thoughts
about humanityâs current challenges and proposal for
what might be done about them
including how some of the issues I have been working on
might fit into that larger picture â for example:
- a global participatory âplanning discourse platformâ
- with better evaluation of discourse contributions
- leading to better decisions / agreements
based on the merit of discourse contributions
- avoiding some obstacles to implementation and governance
Overview
Background
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Emerging awareness of crises and challenges to humanity survival, as expressed e.g. by UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon call for ârevolutionary thinking and action to ensure an economic model for survivalâ (World Economic Forum 2011);
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A ~9000 post LinkedIn discussion (Systems Thinking World) page, challenging âSystems Thinkersâ to respond to the call;
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The discussion did not lead to any single definitive answer or agreement, but offered many interesting insights and lessons;
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Some of my writing on design and planning methods, assess-ment of planning arguments, the value of built environment as a function on âoccasionâ and image seemed to relate to these issues and merge into a tentative strategy for discussion.
Approach
This effort should be seen as an exploration of the issues and their relationships, raising questions more than suggesting definitive answers -- but considering the questions as urgent.
Trying to distill the key elements of a tentative strategy for finding better answers and achieving the agreements needed for effective and coordinated global responses to the crises;
Encouraging a critical attitude to the comments â on every page there should be two brief reminders to consider: âWrong question, wrong way of looking at the problem?â And âMissing aspects?â, inviting readers to add their views on the issues.
CRISES, CHALLENGES:
A collection of examples, in no particular order:
Climate change Armed conflicts (war) Crime
Earthquakes Flooding Drought, Storms
Pollution:
Air, Groundwater, Oceans, Rivers, lakes Space
Forest fires Soil erosion Tsunamis
Shortages: Food Water Housing/Shelter Energy
Health care: Epidemics Drugs, Access, Insurance
Education Information Censorship
Financial system breakdowns Poverty Inflation
Inequality Corruption Political conflicts
Species extinction Racism Religious conflicts
Discrimination: Gender, Ethnic, economic background, Age
Unemployment Working conditions Wages
Industrial accidents Resources depletion
Political ideologies Fascism Authoritarianism
Insights and observations:
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There is wide agreement that challenges â local and global â are real, serious and urgent; and that changes are called for;
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Already, many proposed ideas, theories, models, experiments, initiatives, already are underway, to meet the challenges;
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These âalternativeâ initiatives are creative and diverse but sometimes based on contradictory premises and principles;
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There is little cooperative communication between these efforts;
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There is no emerging agreement about a definitive âmodelâ or a coherent strategy for implementation
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Current governance models appear inappropriate / incapable for effective response to the crises.
Examples of suggested responses: (in no particular order):
- âUnifiedâ acceptance of existing (improved?) positions;
- Overthrowing the current system: introducing a âNew Systemâ
- General adoption of new âthinkingâ (e.g. âSystems Thinkingâ) and innovation practices;
- Resisting Big Government, Returning to âSmall Governanceâ, âSociocracyâ, âHolacarcyâ, improved social democracy forms;
- General adoption of âCommonsâ economy;
- Promotion of mental attitudes: âAwarenessâ; âWe not Meâ;
- Returning / general adoption of religious / moral principles;
religion-based governance;
- Intensified adoption of technology; e.g. Artificial Intelligence;
ârenewableâ energy sources, recycling,
- Intensified citizen participation in planning and governance;
- Adoption of permaculture, regenerative agriculture practices;
- Abandoning use of fossil fuel for energy generation;
- Abandoning logging destruction of rainforests, desert reforestation
- Basic Income Guarantees / Universal Basic Income;
- and moreâŚ
My related work and suggestions
Work, teaching and writing on
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Design methods and theories âe.g. the role of occasion opportunities and image of built environments; (related to built environment role in quality of life measures): Building Economics and Value of Built Environment as a function of occasion and image;
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âArgumentative planning Information systemsâ (after Rittel)
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Structure and Evaluation of Planning Arguments
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Development of a (potentially global) planning discourse support platform aiming at planning decisions based on the merit of discourse contributions;
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Suggestions for encouraging experiments of âalternativeâ innovative approaches, experiments in areas where existing systems have been destroyed by natural or man-made disasters.
Some common shortcomings of suggested âsolutionsâ:
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Many âsingle-aspectâ proposals;
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âConsulting brandâ solutions aimed at âclientsâ in competitive environments (rather than global cooperation);
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Incompatible basic principles and theories;
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Techniques for small groups of selected client employed participants;
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âRemedialâ events led by outside (consultant) facilitators producing recommendations to actual decision-makers;
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Suggestions ranging from specific situation remedies to general âawarenessâ, âholisticâ admonitions w/o implementation details;
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Assuming âgeneral goodwillâ as basis for cooperation; neglecting key ânegativeâ factors: competition, power, deteriorating distrust in current governance, desire for âmaking a differenceâ.
What to do?
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No general agreement on overall policy / action in sight
but a strong sense that âSomething must be doneâ: calling for
a preparatory tentative strategy?
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Encourage / support the continued development of many small / local experiments, initiatives, ideas, âmodels for survivalâ â
on condition of
sharing experiences (successes, obstacles, failures)
(not just promotional material)
in a common, potentially global
-
Development of a âPlanning Discourse Support Platformâ
for
systematic analysis, discussion, evaluation of proposals
and common ârules of the roadâ decisions / agreements
based on measures of merit of discourse contributions.
Supporting âalternativeâ efforts / ideas
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Constructive use of creativity, better knowledge of local conditions, tested effectiveness of small group cooperation and decision-making practices as well as peopleâs desire to âmake a differenceâ â âtheirâ solutions;
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Tolerating apparently incompatible principles, theories, (on condition of mutual non-obstruction) in exchange for gaining knowledge of âwhat works, what doesnât workâ;
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Insisting on honest sharing of experience, information, tools, techniques; and cooperation on needed common ârules of the roadâ agreements;
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E.g. encouraging âalternativeâ experiments: âInnovation Zonesâ n areas destroyed by natural or man-made disasters (using âdisaster aidâ for innovation instead of reconstruction of old, possibly obsolete infrastructure).
Development of a Planning Discourse Support Platform
Purpose (for both small-scale, local as well as âglobalâ use):
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Sharing proposals and information, experiences, for analysis, discussion, evaluation and possible general adoption;
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Encourage wide participation of affected parties (rewarding discourse contributions according to their merit & originality);
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Developing measures of discourse contribution merit;
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Developing decision modes based on the merit of discourse contributions (rather than mere possibly poorly informed or partisan votes, corruption, or authoritarian power);
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Developing better tools to combat obstacles to effective responses: corruption, power abuse, violence, influence of money, lack of valid information, training, competence.
Desirable platform features:
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Easy access, incentives for participation, cooperation;
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Acceptance of all frames of reference (mental models) as starting points for discourse (no dominant âthinkingâ brand);
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Translation: both natural language to natural language, and scientific / technical âjargonâ to conversational language;
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Acceptance of all contributions but only âfirstâ (original) entries to be rewarded and shown in overview and decision displays;
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Governance, funding, operation as independent from powerful economic / financial or (competitive, power-or dominance motivated) nationalist influence as possible;
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Flexible, open to continuous innovation and local adaptation, avoiding aging into obsolete bureaucratic âfossilâ structure.
Key aspects of evaluation in the discourse:
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Evaluation / judgments present and needed in all phases of the decision-making process (usually not well coordinated)
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Evaluation tasks:
- Assessment of âproblemâ situation: âIS-stateâ
As compared to desired / expected âOUGHT-state
- Assessment of expected effectiveness of plan / policy
- Evaluation of merit of discourse contributions: problems,
information (data), proposals, tools / approach, questions, arguments pro/con, evaluation judgments
- Assessment of adequacy of evidence and support for claims, proposals (depth, breadth validity), judgment basis;
- Assessment of adequacy of âaggregationâ tools
both individual partial to overall judgments and individual to âgroup judgmentâ statistics
- Assessment of degree of agreements of different partiesâ evaluation results;
- Assessment of role of feelings, non-quantifiable aspects
Platform Structure: Components
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Public information component (announcing discourse issues)
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Portal for public entries via different media;
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Display of proposed issue âcandidatesâ for discussion
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Display of procedural agreements (ârules of orderâ)
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Selection / decision for acceptance on platform agenda
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Record of entries (âVerbatimâ) file
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Entry reward mechanism (basic participation reward
to be evaluated later);
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Display of Proposals being discussed (âOn Agendaâ)
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Support provisions: Data search, AI analysis, âTool kitâ;
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Sorting / directing entries into appropriate topic;
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Preparation of Evaluation worksheets
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Collection, calculation and display of assessment results;
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Displays of discourse status and results (Overview)
Modification of participantsâ contribution merit rewards, as
derived from overall group evaluation scores;
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Record / log of procedure, decision results: Archive.
Platform: Discourse Process / Procedure
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âRaising issuesâ
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Displaying discussion âissue candidatesâ
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Preliminary (unstructured) comments: these determine
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Acceptance/rejection on agenda for
systematic discussion and evaluation
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Display of accepted âTopicsâ / Proposals, Issues.
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Entering questions, information, arguments
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Displays of evolving discourse in structured format,
interim decisions, evaluation;
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Motion for determining âNext Stepâ: e.g.:
- Back for more information, modification of proposal;
- Proceed to structured evaluation;
- Proceed to application of âspecial techniqueâ (in âtoolkitâ)
(Return to âNext stepâ after each of these activities)
- Proceed to decision
- Drop issue (without decision)
- Stop / Close discourse: prepare summary / log entry.
Use of discourse âby-productsâ â e.g. âmerit pointsâ:
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Each discourse contribution entry earns a âbasic contributionâ acknowledgement token;
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If the item is a âfirstâ, original (not duplicated or repeated) content, the basic, âemptyâ point will be increased or decreased according to the groupâs plausibility or quality/significance assessment during the proposal evaluation;
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Participants will build up a merit points âaccountâ (itself an incentive for participation);
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The account can be used as part of a personâs qualification record for public office (or private employment);
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A person in position empowered to make decisions that canât wait for public discussion outcome âpayâ for each decision with an amount of merit points, according to the decisionâs significance: âPaying for powerâ. Investing reputation, not $, for returns according to success;
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Citizens may transfer some of their own merit points to an official as support for the officialâs power to make specific decisions. This makes supporters equally âaccountableâ for those decisions.
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If the account is depleted, the person cannot make any more decisions: a partial form of control of power.
Whatâs missing?
The global platform must be online, of course.
But it must also convey life:
We need real places for the local experience of that discourse
Places where people get together
To discuss their problems, needs, and strife
Where the singer, the poet, the storyteller
Can give form and color to their vision and dreams
Where moments of joy to remember can happen:
âThatâs where WE made Our Future. Our life.â
And those places, too, must be designed.